Elimination of systemic risk in financial networks by means of a systemic risk transaction tax

Financial markets are exposed to systemic risk (SR), the risk that a major fraction of the system ceases to function, and collapses. It has recently become possible to quantify SR in terms of underlying financial networks where nodes represent financial institutions, and links capture the size and maturity of assets (loans), liabilities and other obligations, such as derivatives. We demonstrate that it is possible to quantify the share of SR that individual liabilities within a financial network contribute to the overall SR. We use empirical data of nationwide interbank liabilities to show that the marginal contribution to overall SR of liabilities for a given size varies by a factor of a thousand. We propose a tax on individual transactions that is proportional to their marginal contribution to overall SR. If a transaction does not increase SR, it is tax-free. With an agent-based model (ABM) (CRISIS macro-financial model), we demonstrate that the proposed ‘Systemic Risk Tax’ (SRT) leads to a self-organized restructuring of financial networks that are practically free of SR. The SRT can be seen as an insurance for the public against costs arising from cascading failure. ABM predictions are shown to be in remarkable agreement with the empirical data and can be used to understand the relation of credit risk and SR.     

浅谈高中生德育管理的重要性

目前,随着我国教育的不断改革和完善,充分发挥德育教育在学员教育管理中的导向作用,是学校做好学员教育管理工作取得成功的重要保障,是教师参与学员教育管理工作取得成功的重要保障,是学员自我教育管理工作取得成功的重要保障。     

谈良好的职业道德和职场环境

职业道德在一个人的职业发展中至关重要。直白地说它就是一个人的职业良心。良心是绝对不可以出问题的,良心如果出了问题,祸患无穷。良好的职业道德离不开良好的职业教育。职业道德教育是一项长期工作,它存在于人生的不同发展阶段,不是一朝一夕可完成的工作。     

官商结盟的体制效应——以近代中国民营企业发展为例的分析

开放经济条件下,在一个相对集权的体制中,为规避潜在的风险,民营企业通常会采取"消极适应或积极适应"两种发展形式。"以牺牲企业对外部(技术、市场)变化适应性为代价换取产权安全"的消极适应型发展的直接后果是使得政府提升国家产业竞争力的努力受挫。与消极适应型发展模式不同,一些民营企业会选择积极适应型的发展模式,即通过寻求官方庇护的政治方式来确保创新收益安全,企业发展与滋生腐败之间极易发生联系。"‘腐败’成为企业发展‘润滑剂’"现象的出现,侵蚀了国家政治体制,加剧了政府和社会大众的不满,客观上加大了企业发展面临的潜在风险。体制"怪圈"的形成,既不利于国家竞争力的提升,又极可能引发政府统治的合法性危机。本文分析表明,只有将民营企业从坏体制"始作俑者"的角色中解放出来,才能破解体制怪圈。这需要从根本上改变民营企业"既是被需要的,同时又是被歧视的"尴尬处境。中国近代史上有关民营企业发展的案例为本文假说提供了丰富的实质性内容。     

山区村镇体系发展规划影响要素分析*——以河北省平山县为例

［目的］探究山区村镇体系发展规划影响要素，将为区域村镇建设规划的制定提供理论参考，对加快新农村建设步伐具有重要的实际意义。［方法］以河北省平山县为实例，从自然因素、经济因素和社会因素3个层面共选取20个影响村镇体系发展规划的因素，邀请相关领域专家对这些因素进行重要性评价，并采用层次分析法确定各影响因素所占权重。［结果］对各影响因素权重进行排序，排名前五位的因素依次为人均生产总值、政府的扶持力度、原有生产布局、灾害发育程度和交通通达性，所占权重分别为0200 0、0150 0、0100 0、0079 6和0074 6。这些因素对平山县村镇规划影响较大，是该县规划中需要重点考虑的因素。［结论］该县今后应继续提升地区经济实力，加强政府的扶持力度。在规划中，避免打破原有生产布局，做好灾害勘测，关注交通的通达性，加强对村镇建设的统筹规划，明确发展定位和布局。     

Systemic risk,economic policy uncertainty and firm bankruptcies: Evidence from multivariate causal inference

The paper investigates causal relationships between systemic risk, economic policy uncertainty and firm bankruptcies, conditional on global volatility proxied by the VIX index, in a sample of 15 advanced and major emerging market economies during January 2008-June 2018. We test for Granger causality in time and frequency domains as well as dissect multivariate causal linkages in the dynamic complex system framework by applying a novel technique – convergent cross mapping (Sugihara et al., 2012). Based on strictly coincident results from all the three approaches, we find that systemic risk causes firm exit in Spain, while in the UK and the Netherlands bankruptcies are triggered by economic policy uncertainty. In South Korea and the USA, the VIX index causes the firm shutdown. For the rest of the countries, the causality inference provides less robust evidence. We argue that the magnitude of deleveraging by banks with respect to the private nonfinancial sector, proxied by the volatility of credit-to-GDP gaps, shapes the presence or absence of causal impact by systemic risk, economic policy uncertainty or the VIX index on bankruptcies.     

桥梁工程质量控制的重要性及其控制方法研究

本文从桥梁工程质量控制的重要性出发,分析了桥梁工程质量控制中存在的问题,并针对问题提出了相应的对策方法。最后得出:在施工过程必须明确质量控制目标,有效地实施质量控制,以确保工程施工质量及降低施工人员事故。     

Simulating Ruin Probabilities for a Class of Semimartingales by Importance Sampling Methods

We consider the problem of finding the probability of ruin when the risk process is assumed to be a special semimartingale with absolutely continuous characteristics. We show how the generalized Girsanov theorem can be used in connection with Monte Carlo simulation to obtain estimates of the ruin probabilities. It is shown by both analytical and numerical examples that these methods can be significantly better than ordinary simulations provided the new measure is chosen with some care.     

大学英语必须以提高和有效地进行跨文化交际为目的

经济全球化与社会一体化，使得国际往日益密切，跨文化交际能力培养的重要性与必然性日益凸现。大学现有的英语教学不能适应新时期的要求，面临着新的挑战。跨文化交际能力的培养必须放在英语教学的重要地位，大学英语教学应以提高语言教学质量和有效地进行跨文化交际为目的。